Local Sales Data for Santa Clara County -- June

About 1 year ago, crazy-man Jim Cramer of CNBC’s Mad Money predicted that the housing market would bottom on June 30^th, 2009.  I’m not saying that I agree with everything he says, but I do find his honest and open delivery style quite refreshing.  At the time, it was a tough call and pretty hard to see where he came up with the idea given all that was happening in the financial and housing industry.

 

Here we are one year later, and on June 16^th he announced on his show that the housing market had hit bottom 2 weeks earlier than he thought -- based on the housing start numbers showing an increase, and based on 3 months of improved sales figures in the number of homes being sold across the country.

 

In the charts you see below it might be hard to see that we are bottoming, but that’s what it looks and feels like to me.  Most every one of the entry-level priced homes ($400k-$500k) have multiple offers on them within days of hitting the market.  It’s like Buyers have an appetite that cannot be satisfied.

 

As for the higher-priced homes, they are still correcting.  Palo Alto between $1M and $1.5M is stabilizing, however Saratoga is down 25% and recently 2 short-sales have been listed at $1M and $1.2M (the first of more to follow no doubt), Los Gatos is down 40%-50%, but Los Altos is only off about 15%.  I think the biggest gaps are with Sunnyvale and Cupertino as compared to Palo Alto or Saratoga.  I’m hearing a lot of questions like “Why would I buy in Sunnyvale or Cupertino at $1.2M when I can get Palo Alto for $1.2M now?”

 

Each chart here shows the percent CHANGE over the prior year in both the Average Sales Price and the Median Sales Price for single homes only, not condos -- enjoy!

 

Chart Analysis:

 

Almaden Valley has some very attractive deals coming onto the market but they are being snapped up equally as quickly.  Still, there is a healthy inventory of homes around $1.2M that offer great square footage values with excellent schools, something you would not have seen a year ago.

 

Blossom Valley has been negative for the entire 12 preceding months -- but look at that bounce off the bottom, further evidence that the market is stabilizing in the most affordable areas.

Willow Glen is still seeing some deals on homes around $600k but several low-end foreclosures are skewing the price averages down further than normal.  Most of WG will be priced above $750k.

 

Downtown San Jose looks a lot like Blossom Valley because the affordability factor is very similar.  Investment and first-time buyers are still getting great deals here with properties that may even cash-flow for the first time in a long time!

Campbell is perhaps the most interesting chart of all the areas we cover.  As I’ve written in prior posts, Campbell homes that come on the market around $500k+/- are sold quickly.  There is very little price depreciation over last year and I believe Buyers will keep Campbell where it is without much if any price erosion.

 

Los Gatos will continue to slide down as long as financing is hard to find for higher loan amounts.  We may begin to see short-sales and foreclosures putting additional pressure on prices in the coming months.

Saratoga prices seem to be holding better than I expected although it now has 160 Active homes for sale.  I still believe that Sellers will need to reduce their prices to get moved given this kind of competition for Buyers looking in this wonderful area.

 

Santa Clara continues to show a 25% discount in prices compared to last year.  New foreclosures come and go very quickly as Buyers recognize the values they are getting. 

 

Sunnyvale prices are still correcting, but the bottom may be near.  I’m seeing more distressed sellers coming to market with higher-priced homes (around $1M).  Now that it seems Palo Alto prices have stabilized we should see some stabilization in Sunnyvale as well.

Cupertino has quickly stabilized, much to my surprise.  We may see another short dip but I have to say it looks like the biggest discounts were already taken earlier this year so that window may be closed.

 

Los Altos prices are under huge pressure and it looks like they are still searching for a bottom given this chart below (same comment as last time, yes).  Look at this chart -- lower highs and lower lows.  Any “chartistician” will tell you that it looks like we are still heading lower in Los Altos.

 

Mountain View prices are slowly deflating.  In a way similar to Sunnyvale, I am seeing a few distressed sales coming to market that will definitely have an impact as those properties attract bargain hunters.

 

Palo Alto prices have again shown that they are stable, yet lower than prices of a year ago.  It may take a few more quarters before we see price gains but the window for buying in Palo Alto is now from what I can see.

We are Realtors.  We are in the market every day representing Buyers and Sellers throughout the areas above.  Everyone has a reason why they are making the move (buying or selling) at this very moment.

 

We bring you this information to help you make an intelligent decision about your next move.  Timing the market is impossible and unwise because you may ultimately not be able to meet goal.  Your motivation for buying or selling should outweigh your concerns of market timing.  The market is always here, people are buying and selling every day, people are getting financing every day -- the real question is ‘when are you ready to make a move?’