We had 1186 closed home sales in
September this year compared to 1001 sales last September. This increase in volume is keeping
prices competitive but many buyers are competing with multiple offers. Looking at the average sales price, in
September of 2008 the county average was $750,000, but this year it is down to
$687,000.
But here is the most interesting
twist. You would think that the
prices are down because of increased supply and lower demand (more inventory
means Sellers have to lower their prices), right? Well, that’s not what the numbers say.
In fact, last year we had 4938
Active listings in September and this year we only have 2298. We had 1967 homes Pending with accepted
offers in September 2008 and this year we are up to 2900. Clearly we are more active and have
less inventory -- so prices must be down because the lower priced homes are
selling as fast as they come on the market, while higher priced homes sit on
the market much longer.
Each chart here shows the
percent CHANGE over the prior year in both the Average Sales Price and the
Median Sales Price for single homes only, not condos -- enjoy!
Chart Analysis:
Almaden Valley is clearly struggling to recover. Again, for Almaden schools at 30% off
there are some good opportunities out there for a move-up buyer.
Blossom Valley is an example of what a recovery looks like for
affordable homes in San Jose. The
hard part is actually getting into a home as almost everything that comes on
the market has multiple offers.
Willow Glen has become a very price-stable area of San
Jose. It was hammered earlier
because WG still has high priced luxury homes, but it seems to have recovered
nicely.
Downtown San Jose follows the chart for Blossom Valley because both
areas support a very similar affordability factor. I still believe that investment buyers will find great deals
here because you may be able to cash-flow for the first time in a long time!
Campbell is a perfect example of what I have been saying is
the March bottom for Bay Area housing.
Campbell prices are down about 10% from last year but have stabilized
nicely and are giving buyers a nice value.
Los Gatos is not going down as far as I thought it
would. Sure, it took a hit early
in the year, but it looks to have recovered and shows prices off about 20% from
last year.
Saratoga prices are leaking slightly, about 25%, but
properties are finally moving. As
Sellers adjust their expectations down, there are Buyers stepping up to get a
great value in this precious area.
This trend should continue for the next several months.
Santa Clara showed an unexplainable spike last month but
overall it continues to be an area for buyers to find a 25% discount in prices
compared to last year.
Sunnyvale prices are just 10% lower than last year at this
time and the “V” shape recovery could not be more clear! Very reasonably properties are being
bought and sold every day so I believe Sunnyvale to be a solid community for
good schools and good commute location.
Cupertino has quickly stabilized, but there are more
distressed sales than last year at this time. I do not believe that prices are going to drop considerably
from here, but there will be pockets of great deals from time to time.
Los Altos prices have been under pressure, but are balancing
between 10%-30% off last year sales prices. Again, some distressed sales will record lower numbers but
it does not appear that the broad base of Sellers are under too much pressure.
Mountain View prices are slowly deflating and as I mentioned in
previous months, I see MV coming under distressed-sale pressure. It will be interesting to see if
October prices bounce back up or continue the downward trend.
Palo Alto prices have continued to stabilize as Sellers
quickly adjusted their expectations to attract Buyers. I expect that prices will continue to
bounce around a 20% discount from last year for the next 3-6 months. Get your discount now before it goes
away…
We are Realtors. We are in the market every day
representing Buyers and Sellers throughout the areas above. Everyone has a reason why they are
making the move (buying or selling) at this very moment.
We bring you this information to
help you make an intelligent decision about your next move. Timing the market is impossible and
unwise because you may ultimately not be able to meet goal. Your motivation for buying or selling
should outweigh your concerns of market timing. The market is always here, people are buying and selling every
day, people are getting financing every day -- the real question is ‘when are
you ready to make a move?’
-mark
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